What is a Monte Carlo simulation in hockey predictions?

It's a method of replaying the same season many times (700 times, in our case) with randomized game outcomes weighted by each team's strength. Instead of one predicted final standings table, you get a distribution of outcomes, which is what produces stats like a team's playoff percentage.

Which NHL team has the best Stanley Cup odds for 2026-27?

Utah Mammoth projects as the strongest team in the league, with the highest simulated points total and goal difference of any team in either conference, making it the top Stanley Cup contender in our model heading into the season.

How accurate are preseason NHL simulations?

Preseason simulations are a snapshot based on roster construction and recent performance, not a guarantee. Injuries, trades, goaltending form, and in-season coaching changes all shift a team's real trajectory, so treat these numbers as a starting point rather than a final verdict.

Will these NHL projections be updated during the season?

We plan to revisit the simulation as the 2026-27 season progresses and real results start to diverge from the preseason model.

NHL 2026-27 Predictions: Monte Carlo Simulation

We ran a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL 2026-27 season, using the same game simulator that powers Pocket Hockey Manager's games. Results were aggregated over thousands of independent season simulations to produce a distribution of outcomes for each team. The table below shows each team's average points, record, and goal difference, plus odds of making the playoffs based on the simulation results.

Each trial simulates 1344 games, on the real 2026-27 schedule
Rest days and back-to-backs are modeled and affect fatigue in the simulation
Every trial introduces independent variance (etc. injuries, player performance swings)
Games are simulated with a stochastic simulator: every game has realistic variance in outcome, not a fixed "better team always wins" result

Eastern Conference

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Rank	Team	Points	W	L	OTL	GD	Playoff %
1	Tampa Bay Lightning	105.8	50.0	28.2	5.7	+55.2	93.0%
2	Carolina Hurricanes	104.5	49.4	28.9	5.7	+50.2	90.7%
3	New Jersey Devils	98.9	46.5	31.6	5.9	+30.2	79.6%
4	Ottawa Senators	98.0	46.1	32.1	5.8	+27.7	75.1%
5	Boston Bruins	96.4	45.2	32.8	6.0	+21.7	66.4%
6	Montreal Canadiens	95.6	45.0	33.4	5.7	+18.7	66.0%
7	Philadelphia Flyers	93.1	43.5	34.5	6.0	+9.4	57.4%
8	Florida Panthers	92.4	43.2	34.8	5.9	+8.6	51.1%
9	New York Rangers	92.0	42.9	34.9	6.2	+6.1	50.6%
10	Washington Capitals	91.6	42.7	35.1	6.1	+4.8	46.7%
11	Detroit Red Wings	91.6	42.7	35.1	6.3	+4.1	46.4%
12	New York Islanders	86.3	40.0	37.7	6.4	-12.9	31.3%
13	Toronto Maple Leafs	85.0	39.3	38.2	6.5	-17.9	25.0%
14	Buffalo Sabres	80.1	36.9	40.7	6.4	-33.4	14.3%
15	Pittsburgh Penguins	74.7	34.2	43.5	6.2	-56.5	4.3%
16	Columbus Blue Jackets	72.5	32.9	44.4	6.7	-59.5	2.0%

Western Conference

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Rank	Team	Points	W	L	OTL	GD	Playoff %
1	Utah Mammoth	113.3	54.1	24.7	5.2	+82.3	99.6%
2	Vegas Golden Knights	107.7	51.2	27.5	5.3	+63.8	97.6%
3	Colorado Avalanche	106.4	50.5	28.0	5.5	+55.9	97.1%
4	Nashville Predators	103.6	48.9	29.3	5.8	+47.1	92.4%
5	Anaheim Ducks	100.9	47.5	30.6	5.9	+37.3	94.3%
6	Dallas Stars	99.5	46.8	31.3	5.9	+31.1	87.1%
7	Minnesota Wild	90.3	42.1	35.8	6.1	+1.0	57.7%
8	Edmonton Oilers	89.2	41.5	36.3	6.2	-3.4	60.1%
9	Seattle Kraken	81.7	37.7	40.0	6.3	-27.7	29.9%
10	St. Louis Blues	81.6	37.6	40.0	6.4	-29.3	17.9%
11	Chicago Blackhawks	79.8	36.6	40.7	6.7	-35.8	14.9%
12	Los Angeles Kings	79.0	36.3	41.3	6.5	-36.6	16.4%
13	Vancouver Canucks	76.2	34.9	42.7	6.5	-48.2	12.3%
14	San Jose Sharks	76.0	34.9	42.8	6.3	-49.6	15.6%
15	Calgary Flames	73.6	33.4	43.8	6.7	-57.0	6.7%
16	Winnipeg Jets	65.3	29.4	48.1	6.4	-87.6	0.4%

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Overall Standings

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Rank	Team	Points	W	L	OTL	GD	Playoff %
1	Utah Mammoth	113.3	54.1	24.7	5.2	+82.3	99.6%
2	Vegas Golden Knights	107.7	51.2	27.5	5.3	+63.8	97.6%
3	Colorado Avalanche	106.4	50.5	28.0	5.5	+55.9	97.1%
4	Tampa Bay Lightning	105.8	50.0	28.2	5.7	+55.2	93.0%
5	Carolina Hurricanes	104.5	49.4	28.9	5.7	+50.2	90.7%
6	Nashville Predators	103.6	48.9	29.3	5.8	+47.1	92.4%
7	Anaheim Ducks	100.9	47.5	30.6	5.9	+37.3	94.3%
8	Dallas Stars	99.5	46.8	31.3	5.9	+31.1	87.1%
9	New Jersey Devils	98.9	46.5	31.6	5.9	+30.2	79.6%
10	Ottawa Senators	98.0	46.1	32.1	5.8	+27.7	75.1%
11	Boston Bruins	96.4	45.2	32.8	6.0	+21.7	66.4%
12	Montreal Canadiens	95.6	45.0	33.4	5.7	+18.7	66.0%
13	Philadelphia Flyers	93.1	43.5	34.5	6.0	+9.4	57.4%
14	Florida Panthers	92.4	43.2	34.8	5.9	+8.6	51.1%
15	New York Rangers	92.0	42.9	34.9	6.2	+6.1	50.6%
16	Washington Capitals	91.6	42.7	35.1	6.1	+4.8	46.7%
17	Detroit Red Wings	91.6	42.7	35.1	6.3	+4.1	46.4%
18	Minnesota Wild	90.3	42.1	35.8	6.1	+1.0	57.7%
19	Edmonton Oilers	89.2	41.5	36.3	6.2	-3.4	60.1%
20	New York Islanders	86.3	40.0	37.7	6.4	-12.9	31.3%
21	Toronto Maple Leafs	85.0	39.3	38.2	6.5	-17.9	25.0%
22	Seattle Kraken	81.7	37.7	40.0	6.3	-27.7	29.9%
23	St. Louis Blues	81.6	37.6	40.0	6.4	-29.3	17.9%
24	Buffalo Sabres	80.1	36.9	40.7	6.4	-33.4	14.3%
25	Chicago Blackhawks	79.8	36.6	40.7	6.7	-35.8	14.9%
26	Los Angeles Kings	79.0	36.3	41.3	6.5	-36.6	16.4%
27	Vancouver Canucks	76.2	34.9	42.7	6.5	-48.2	12.3%
28	San Jose Sharks	76.0	34.9	42.8	6.3	-49.6	15.6%
29	Pittsburgh Penguins	74.7	34.2	43.5	6.2	-56.5	4.3%
30	Calgary Flames	73.6	33.4	43.8	6.7	-57.0	6.7%
31	Columbus Blue Jackets	72.5	32.9	44.4	6.7	-59.5	2.0%
32	Winnipeg Jets	65.3	29.4	48.1	6.4	-87.6	0.4%

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